Investment Strategies

Some Big Predictions From UBS As Bank's Global Roadshow Rocks On

Tom King Country Manager Singapore 17 January 2014

Some Big Predictions From UBS As Bank's Global Roadshow Rocks On

While there were celebrities and plenty of razzmatazz to wow the audience, some stark predictions proved to be some of the most eye-catching moments at the recent Singapore leg of a global UBS roadshow.

While there were celebrities and plenty of razzmatazz to wow the audience here in Singapore, some stark predictions from economists proved to be some of the most eye-catching moments at the latest leg of a global UBS roadshow.

Set in the sumptuous ballroom of the Fairmont Hotel, more than 1,000 ultra high net worth clients of the Swiss banking giant were pampered, informed and then well nourished.  This was part of the Singapore segment of the bank’s Wealth Insights tour.

Earlier this week, in China, UBS featured no less a sporting star than former NBA player Yao Ming as a special guest speaker. In Singapore, politics replaced sport with the former Secretary of the Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as keynote speaker.

The real stars of the show however, were the UBS economists. In particular Paul Donovan, Kelvin Tay, Mark Haefele and Min Lan Tan.

Tan achieved the strongest reaction form the audience; it drew in a collective gasp of breath when she said the local Singaporean property market could fall by 5 per cent this year and next and then the year after that. There has, in fact, been considerable coverage of how measures by the authorities in Singapore – and Hong Kong – to curb red-hot real estate markets are now starting to bite.

The general theme of the gathering was about more bullish economic sentiment, with China and South Korea thought to be among the winners in the region.

Clean energy firms, daily consumables companies and selected internet businesses with real and growing cash flow were among the recommendations for China. On the downside, the Indian and Indonesian markets were seen as being more of a challenge this year.


Forex

On the currency front the US dollar, Singapore dollar and UK’s sterling were given the thumbs up by UBS.

The subject of “Abenomics” [Japan’s reflationary measures] split the UBS experts who see the yen falling to ¥110 vs the dollar (it is currently around Y104); the panellists at the event think a weaker yen is great for internationally-exposed Japanese firms but not so positive for the domestic economy. With the sales tax increase due in Japan in April, this new levy could drag on government ambitions for faster growth.

Overall the refrain that was consistently beat by each speaker was that the time was now right for Asian investors to diversify investment portfolios outside of Asia and not to be afraid of the US and Europe. Then it was time for one of the largest and best prepared buffets Singapore will see this year.

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