Naomi Waistell, fund manager, global emerging markets at Carmignac, said that 2025 was the strongest year for emerging markets in 15 years, notably for South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, China – a trend that she believes will continue in 2026. Waistell said GDP growth is improving whilst softening in the US, the dollar will remain weak and emerging market trade will be resilient. “There is also improved corporate governance in emerging markets while debt levels are manageable and ballooning in the US,” she added. “Inflation is under control while at risk in the US and valuations in emerging markets are attractive. Currencies are also strengthening while weakening in the US,” she continued. “Flows are coming back to emerging markets. There are also big opportunities in Asia’s tech and artificial intelligence sectors.” Waistell noted that emerging markets are playing different roles in AI, with Korea and China leading in innovation and India and China excelling at rapid, large-scale implementation that drives productivity.  

“North Asian markets are the critical enablers of the AI revolution. Eighty per cent of total semi-conductors manufacturing capacity lies in South Korea, Taiwan and China, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) difficult to replicate,” Waistell said. “Emerging markets are also central to global energy and critical metal supply chains, with China ahead on renewables and solar power.” While it still relies on fossil fuels, China produces more than 80 per cent of all solar photovoltaic panels, half of the world’s leading electric vehicles and a third of its wind power. Waistell is also more positive on the outlook for India, after a trade deal with the US was recently reached, although equities are still not cheap.

“We have an alignment of stars to enable emerging markets to shine in 2026," chief economist at Carmignac Raphael Gallardo, continued. "The global cycle is accelerating, boosted by developed markets' fiscal stimulus and lagged monetary easing. The dollar has entered a structural bear market due to an inflationary policy mix and geopolitical fragmentation. The global cycle, weak dollar and geopolitical fragmentation are creating a bull market and positive environment for commodity markets."

He believes that there is still upside for commodities in 2026, notably for precious metals which reached record highs in 2025. “Emerging markets are exhibiting healthy external and fiscal fundamentals, with disinflation continuing,” he said. Although the macro-economic situation in China is not so good, Gallardo emphasised how China is poised to join the global fiscal push and let its currency appreciate with positive spillover effects in the rest of Asia. China’s exports are also good. “Emerging market foreign exchange (FX) and equities combine cheap valuations with high beta to global growth.”

A number of investment managers are positive about emerging markets this year. Philippe D’Orgeval, deputy group chief investment officer at Paris-based , for instance, which has €2.2 trillion ($2.5 trillion) in assets under management, told this news service that they are slightly overweight in equities towards Europe and emerging markets, at the expense of the US. “We are interested in emerging markets due to the growth opportunities there.” Although US equities remain a cornerstone of investors portfolios, also favours a reduction in investors allocation to US equities in 2026, and an increase in European and emerging market ones. See here.

New hires
With emerging market debt a key part of Camignac’s fixed income offering, yesterday the firm reinforced yesterday its emerging market debt (EMD) team with the appointments of Lamine Bougueroua and analyst Thomas Belaich. 

Bougueroua joined Carmignac in February from UBP Asset Management where he was a senior portfolio manager in the emerging markets fixed income team. At UBP he managed a Morningstar 5-star rated frontier markets bond fund and a 4-star rated local currency EMD fund, both with top-quartile performance over three years, the firm said in a statement. Prior to UBP Asset Management, he worked at Nordea Investment Management and First State Investments. He started his investment career, specialising in emerging markets, over 20 years ago.

EMD is a key conviction for Carmignac, with exposure to the asset class of over €3.7 billion. Once based in Paris, Bougueroua will become co-portfolio manager of the Morningstar 4-star rated Carmignac Portfolio EM Debt fund, working alongside Alessandra Alecci. Alecci joined Carmignac in 2023 from American Century Investments, where she was an EMD portfolio manager and head of sovereign research until August 2022.

Bougueroua will also become manager of the fixed income sleeve of the Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine strategy, working alongside head of emerging market equities, Xavier Hovasse who will continue to run its equity component.

Thomas Belaich also joined Carmignac as an emerging market debt analyst in early December 2025. He joined from Global Sovereign Advisory, where he was a senior emerging market debt analyst supporting emerging countries with sovereign debt restructuring and public policies. He has six years’ experience including at Lazard’s Sovereign Advisory Group and as a member of the staff at the French Ministries of Finance and Labour.

“Emerging market debt is a key pillar of our fixed income offering and remains one of the most dynamic segments of today’s market,” Guillaume Rigeade and Pierre Verlé, co-heads of fixed income, said.

“Carmignac was among the pioneers in emerging market investing, with a strong reputation for its long-term, conviction-driven approach,” Bougueroua continued. “This philosophy aligns perfectly with my own. Now, with emerging markets benefiting from economic tailwinds, investors’ desire for diversification away from developed markets and improving fundamentals, it is an exciting time for the asset class.”