The report draws from Hamilton Lane’s proprietary database spanning more than 69,000 funds and 63 vintage years. The overview comes as the global investment environment is experiencing a period of profound uncertainty and structural change. The report predicts that the next five years could reshape markets more dramatically than any recent period. As a result, investors must focus less on certainty and more on manager selection, resilience and adaptability.

“We are at a critical moment for global investing, as geopolitical fragmentation, tariff tensions, shifting monetary conditions and rapid technological disruption – especially artificial intelligence – set the stage for increasing volatility,” Mario Giannini, executive co-chairman and author of the market overview, said. “This Pandora's box that has been opened cannot be shut, and we expect profound changes ahead as these factors play out. Investment success will depend on the ability to adapt to new vehicles, liquidity models and market dynamics.”

10 convictions outlined in the report are outlined below.

1. Artificial intelligence
AI has become a primary driver of returns and investment activity, with public markets heavily concentrated in a small group of AI-linked companies, while private markets, particularly venture capital, offer broader, more diversified exposure.

Venture capital is positioned to lead AI investment activity, providing access to applications, models, infrastructure, and enabling technologies, especially as leading AI companies remain private longer and capture more value pre-initial public offering (IPO).

2. Secondaries
The secondary market (both general partner-led and limited partner-led is supported by strong underlying tailwinds, such as slow exits, LP portfolio rebalancing needs, and strong early GP-led deal performance. Supply continues to exceed available capital, creating attractive pricing and faster deployment opportunities, with the market representing only ~2 per cent of net asset value (NAV) and with significant room to grow.

Contrary to perception, GP-led deals are not low quality: the average gain on GP-led companies is over 4x multiple on invested capital, and managers are rolling nearly all their carry into these deals, demonstrating strong conviction.

3. Private credit
Private credit remains an attractive asset class, having beaten its public benchmark every year for 24 years and by hundreds of basis points over the past decade.

Evidence does not support claims of a private credit bubble. The structural forces behind private credit growth have strengthened, the market is showing limited signs of stress, and private credit is expected to remain more resilient across cycles compared with broadly syndicated or bank held loans.

4. Performance dynamics
Private markets' performance in more recent years has lagged due to an unusually strong run of public equity performance. The question is whether the Magnificent 7 – Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla – stocks driving the bulk of that performance will continue their climb in a rapidly-changing world.

Private equity shows long-term outperformance in most periods, and could deliver value as a diversification tool amid increasingly concentrated AI-driven public markets.

5. Distributions
2025 delivered the second highest distribution year on record, yet private equity and real assets distribution rates remained relatively subdued due to a cautious exit environment.

6. Valuations
The valuation multiples of unrealised deals from the 2021 to 2022 cohort have increased over their hold periods, causing some to raise concerns about valuations.

The report supports the belief that on average, valuations remain aligned with fundamentals and valuation increases in listed assets. The bid-ask spread has compressed over the past year and the belief is that it is the buyers who are capitulating.

7. Evergreen performance
Data suggests that private equity and secondary-focused evergreen funds outperform closed-end peers across one- and three-year periods. This runs counter to the narrative that investors may sacrifice returns for a friendlier structure and the option for liquidity. Still, this is a young market and early returns can be both higher and more volatile.

These structures also introduce considerations over liquidity, investment pacing, valuations and fundraising during challenging environments – and the report notes that during downturns, factors such as manager selection, scale and expertise become even more important in helping investors capture the benefits of evergreen structures.

8. Overweight US
From a geographic perspective, Hamilton Lane believes that investors should be overweight in US assets. This overweight should include an investors private markets’ portfolio, although infrastructure is an area where a more global portfolio is advisable. This overweight is for both US dollar denominated and non-US dollar denominated investors.

9. Infrastructure
Private infrastructure has performed well more recently and needs a place in portfolios. Although prices today are elevated, the scale of capital required to address energy, data centre and logistics needs, and required upgrades across the infrastructure spectrum is significant. This is true globally, and there is no particular region with a monopoly on the future build.

10. Data, technology, and market infrastructure
As investing in private markets continues to become more mainstream, investors will need to acknowledge that data is still largely fragmented and opaque, with manual operations that are mistake prone.

However, digitisation, advanced analytics and AI-enabled diligence are increasing transparency and scalability across private markets, pushing the industry towards modernisation and operational efficiency.

is also optimistic about private markets in 2026. A new report by US-listed alternative asset manager Blackstone’s Private Wealth group shows that nearly three quarters (75 per cent) of surveyed advisors expect that private markets will see the most substantial growth this year. See more here and here.