Market volatility remains elevated as markets digest the US–Israel conflict with Iran, now entering its third week. Energy markets remain the key transmission channel into broader financial markets: Brent crude is still trading around $100, levels that keep inflation concerns alive and complicate expectations for interest rate cuts. Precious metals dipped on Thursday, with gold once again failing to sustain the price action above the $5,200 level and falling below $5,100.

“As the war in the Middle East develops, I suspect the gold market will continue to fluctuate. At the beginning, we saw gold prices shoot upwards, undoubtedly as investors panicked to seek stability, but more recently, we have seen a drop,” Rick Kanda, managing director at highlighted that gold’s track record throughout military conflicts shows mixed performance. However, given the macroeconomic and political uncertainties beyond the risks arising from the Iran war, Wayne Gordon, strategist, and Dominic Schnider, head global FX and commodity, UBS Global Wealth Management, maintain an attractive rating for the metal and remain long gold in their global asset allocation.

“For investors with an affinity for gold, we believe a modest allocation in the mid-single digits of total assets can enhance diversification and buffer against macro-related risks,” they said. They believe that growing US debt and weakening confidence in Treasuries, combined with geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation trends, are likely to push gold prices to $5,900 to $6,200/oz over 2026.