“Comparing activity before and after the escalation of the Iran conflict, gold transactions among OCBC customers increased 60 per cent in the four weeks following 28 February versus the four weeks prior and is seven times higher than a year ago,” the Singapore-headquartered bank said in a note. “Notably, this surge has brought in a wave of first-time participants, with recent entrants now making up 7 per cent of OCBC’s total precious metals investor base.”

This pattern of investor behaviour stands in contrast to conventional expectations. “Gold is typically seen as a haven during geopolitical stress, with prices rising as investors flee risk. This time, however, gold entered the conflict at elevated levels after a strong run up, prompting profit taking and liquidity-driven selling,” OCBC continued.

Gold traded at $5,278 per ounce on 27 February, a day before the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. In the weeks that followed, prices fell sharply, touching near $4,100 intra-day on 23 March, before closing at around $4,400. This week, however, it recorded its first weekly gain since the conflict started, showing early signs of stabilising after a deep correction.

The pullback reflects macroeconomic pressures temporarily outweighing geopolitical demand. Higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, markets have repriced toward fewer or delayed US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and rising Treasury yields alongside a firmer US dollar have added pressure on the price of gold.

Opportunity
Yet OCBC said its data suggests that investors are not turning away from gold. In fact, they are taking advantage of lower prices to build exposure, particularly those who had previously stayed on the sidelines when prices were stretched.

“It is not uncommon for gold to face short-term selling during periods of stress as investors raise liquidity,” Germaine Tan, OCBC head of treasury products and equities, said. “What is notable this time is that despite the price correction, investor participation has increased, suggesting confidence in gold’s longer-term role as a portfolio hedge remains intact. Price pullbacks can present attractive entry points to build exposure gradually.”

Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Swiss private bank , also said that while geopolitical conflicts and market volatility can tempt investors to try to time their market entries and exits, history and statistics show that this approach is fraught with risk: “We maintain the view that staying invested with a well-diversified portfolio is the best way to capture long-term market growth, and investors can consider gold.” See more about the precious metal here.