“I don’t think that we will have many global moves at COP31,” Desmartin told this news service in an interview in Paris. “This year it will be very difficult to move on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Where I am much more optimistic is the acceleration in the investment in renewables and other solutions like energy efficiency. I think that will be the dynamic part of the COP31.”

“The positive thing is that economics and geopolitics are going to support the COP31,” he continued. With the Middle East conflict causing a surge in oil prices since March 2026, Desmartin highlighted that while fossil fuels are becoming very costly, renewable energy is becoming more competitive, notably solar. The cost of solar power has fallen by about 90 per cent since 2010, he added, making it competitive with fossil fuels.

“There has clearly been a big rise in renewable production in Asia and Africa, driven by a boom in solar power,” Desmartin said. While China still relies on fossil fuels and is the world’s largest emitter of emissions, it produces more than 80 per cent of all solar photovoltaic panels, half of the world’s leading electric vehicles and a third of its wind power. “Africa has been increasing its solar power production significantly too,” he added.

“It’s very clear in Europe that sustainability is now part of the solution for energy security,” he said. “It’s the same for policymakers in Asia such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore as well as Canada. The message is that geopolitics is supporting the energy transition, and countries are becoming less dependent on fossil fuels. It’s not just an environmental issue now. It’s clearly economics and geopolitics.”

“What we will see at the COP31 are more initiatives coming from the private sector, investors and other stakeholders,” he continued. Last year at the COP30 in Brazil, for instance, there were some public-private sector initiatives on forestry and the launch of the “Tropical Forests Forever Fund” to provide funding for conservation efforts, projected at $125 billion. “This time we will see an acceleration of initiatives to support, for instance, Africa and the move towards renewables,” Desmartin said. The COP31 presidency has already announced initiatives to scale renewable energy, grid expansion and electrification investments. 

Nordic countries such as Denmark and Sweden also ahead on climate change, Desmartin continued. Parts of Europe such as Italy, Spain and Portugal have a lot of renewable energy capacity, with Portugal and Spain leading the way with wind and solar power forming a big part of their electricity mix. Meanwhile, France is committed to nuclear power, Desmartin added, with about 70 per cent of its electricity derived from nuclear energy. On the other hand, the UK is doing more work on offshore wind, with renewables providing the majority of the nation’s electricity.

Although India is the third largest emitter globally, behind China and the US, Desmartin said it has developed its renewable energy capacity considerably, as a result of growth in solar and wind power.

Brazil also has one of the world’s cleanest energy mixes with 89 per cent of its electricity coming from renewables, primarily hydropower, supported by a growing wind and solar sector.

Negative aspects
However, countries efforts to address climate change have come under geopolitical pressure after the US pulled out of the global climate negotiations. Desmartin noted that the US, the second largest emitter of emissions, will not be present at the talks again this year for the second time. “This is a major problem as other oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia will also not move as the US is not present,” he said. He underlined that US President Donald Trump is very much in favour of oil production, and against renewables. Nevertheless, some states, California for instance, are still aiming to use renewable energy; 66 per cent of California's power came for renewables in 2023. “Trump is also more open minded about green hydrogen,” he said.

Desmartin believes that the UN has never been as weak in terms of power since its creation in 1945. And he doubts whether Turkey will be very motivated in advancing the climate agenda. Although the country is experiencing growth in renewable energy and electric vehicles, it is still a major producer and consumer of coal-fired electricity in Europe. He believes that it will be difficult to move on emission reductions at the COP31. “It is also becoming more difficult for developed countries to financially support developing countries to help the transition as it becomes more difficult to find the budget, with the US not present and in Europe, with countries such as France having a large budget deficit.”

Nevertheless, the EU is expected to push for a mitigation package aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions at the COP31. The EU wants to extend the segment in UN climate negotiations until 2040 where governments discuss how to reduce emissions, and identify areas where more can be done. The COP31 presidency also aims to turn past climate commitments and promises into direct measurable action.

Edmund Shing, global chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, also noted in an interview with this news service recently, that the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran highlighted the importance of the energy transition, nuclear energy and the need avoid relying on fossil fuels. See here.