Across agriculture, disruption to fertiliser and energy markets is colliding with growing weather risks. The result is a resource squeeze that could reach beyond spot commodity markets into inflation, food prices and the cost of the AI build-out.

Against a backdrop of constrained supply and rising competition for resources, at a media event, Paul Gooden, portfolio manager and head of natural resources at , said his conviction in long-term demand growth for copper has also increased, underpinning his expectation that copper should slip into structural deficits later this decade. He is focused on this compelling long-term outlook, and has upgraded his view to neutral, while lifting his price targets for the metal. Menke also acknowledges the risk of a short-term and market-mood-driven setback, in particular, should US President Trump actively decide against import tariffs, potentially causing a 10 per cent to 15 per cent correction in copper prices. That said, considering the very compelling outlook, Menke would treat such a setback as a longer-term buying opportunity.

Meanwhile at the event, Cheveley said lithium demand is growing fast, with prices recovering this year, despite a fall last month: “It’s an exciting market and I expect more investment in the next five years.” 

Rising electricity demand and volatility from AI workloads is increasing the value of energy storage. Lithium-ion batteries are still the dominant solution for short to medium-term duration storage, directly linking AI to lithium demand. Grid power storage also adds a second durable pillar of demand while electrification has expanded lithium’s demand base through electric vehicles.

Despite rising costs, Cheveley remains positive about the outlook for gold, seen as a safe haven by many, and driven by demand from central banks, not just China, and de-dollarisation.

With nitrogen fertiliser prices soaring, as a result of the conflict, Cheveley noted that the market is very volatile; as a result, he expects that trend to continue. In view of the high prices, farmers are substituting potash where they can, he said, which has not been so affected by the closure of the Straits of Hormuz and the global resource squeeze. Canada is the world’s largest producer while Belarus and Russia are also major producers and exporters of potash.